As expected the Louisville Metro Mayor race is proving to be a close one. Greg Fischer who should be the clear front runner, since Dems have a 2-1 advantage in Jefferson County, is in trouble.
According to the latest WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass poll on the Mayoral race:
538 Likely voters
Margin of error +/- 4.3%
No big surprise to most of us this early and Hal will win by 5 or 6 points if this early poll is any indication. I don't believe there are that many votes for Couzins or Jackie Green and the undecideds I have spoken with seem to favor Hal at the moment.
Fischer has proven time and time again that he is just Abramson Part deux and quite frankly Louisville cannot afford this mentality any longer. Hal Heiner on the other hand has proven himself to be a leader not a follower. He has stood up against Abramson, put his name on the line towards openness and transparency with http://www.louisvillecheckbook.com/, and has actually spent his time listening to those he seeks to represent from all sides of the political spectrum.
In fact not only has Hal shown he understands the importance of this race by leading the way on where he stands on the ORBP (he is against tolls and favors an East End bridge be built now and first), he has actually spent time and resources in the South End long ignored by Abramson and his pet party machine rubberstamps including the South End's own Vickie Welch, Bob Henderson, and Rick Blackwell.
I told anyone and everyone that would listen on primary election night that this race would be decided by the South End voters. I still believe it. The logic then is the same as now.
East will split between the obstructionist River Fields crowd who will back Fischer while common sense voters will back Heiner. The West End will be bought by Fischer, not personally but "indirectly" by dollars funneled to them by the Dem machine, yep it really works that way folks, so Heiner has to gain the South.
And that is Hal's ticket to the Mayoral seat. South enders do not always vote party lines. Most vote candidates first and Hal represents the common sense conservative majority voters in the South. While the Democratic machine has been trying to use the South end as their own personal cash cow, through intimidation and harassment by abusing their governmental agencies against the South end residents, the real conservatives in the area have been awoken.
That is Hal's strength. He not only understands that the South is vital to the economic future of a merged Louisville Government, he also has spent his time and money being available and actually listening to the residents in the area.
In short Hal gets it. He understands ALL must be included in the promise of a new Louisville.
According to this from WHAS11 Heiner, Fischer tied in new poll WHAS11.com WHAS11.com Louisville Blogs WHAS11.com News for Louisville, Kentucky, Fischer, referring to the 21% polled who support Heiner, is quoted as saying:
"They need to come home," said Fischer, "and quite a few Republicans are coming over to vote for me as well. This race is about problem solving, job creation."
Who needs to come home Greg? This is about problem solving and job creation according to you right? These areas cross party lines Greg so who exactly "needs to come home."
While Hal is trying to work with communities, Greg is betting the farm on his party "coming home." Kind of telling in itself isn't it?
So here is what will happen folks. By late August, or early September at the latest, Fischer will go back into the negative campaign mode he knows so well and perfected during his race against Bruce Lunsford. He has no choice.
He has to have a low turnout at the voting booth in order to win. Negative campaigning will help him toward that end. Couple that with the fact he is using Abramson boy toy Chris Poynter to spin to his heart's content, as learned from the Master Abramson himself, it is definite this will happen. Poynter is excellent at bait and switch and Greg needs that experience desperately.
Add in the fact that because he apparently thinks no one in Louisville can run the campaign, he went all the way to Rhode Island to hire his campaign manager a questionable hire in itself, Louisville News and Politics: GREG FISCHER NEW CAMPAIGN MANAGER: WHO IS CHRISTOPHER BIZZACCO? then Greg has problems.
Fischer favors a library tax, Heiner worked against it.
The tax was defeated because the South End folks, led by Chris Thieneman, fought and voted against it.
Fischer favors an Arts tax. Heiner wants to work to lower taxes and make Louisville more competitive.
Fischer does not believe gambling should be on the ballot Heiner does. While I am a proponent myself of legalized gambling the majority want it on the ballot so Hal gets this one right as well. Leave it to the people.
In the South these things are important. In fact throughout most of the community East, South, and West, those I speak with agree that the tax issues Fischer is for are wrong for Louisville period.
Heiner gets it.
Fischer is in trouble.
Stay tuned this will get ugly.......
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