Sunday, October 24, 2010

ELECTION PREDICTIONS 2010:PART 1

As you know the General election is held on Tuesday November 2, 2010. Normally I would do my predictions all at once but thanks to this crazy schedule I now have I decided to do them a piece at a time. Without further ado here you go!

US SENATE: In the race for US Senate what can I say? Rand Paul has made some gaffes that have upset some and deservedly so. Jack Conway on the other hand has flat out lied and even wasted tons of money on campaign ads doing what? Attacking Paul on an idiotic college prank from 30 years ago. You don't have to do much more to show that you are either A) incompetent, or B) scared. Additionally, thanks to the recent article concerning a drug investigation that involves Jack's brother Matt, and Jack's potential involvement in it, there could be more trouble for him. In the case of Paul versus Conway both have problems, but Conway will make it a close race simply because of his Democratic base.

I still predict Rand Paul wins by 3.

US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES DISTRICT 3: This race is a contrast between the two major party candidates. Todd Lally who has proven time and again he is in over his head and John Yarmuth who is consistently accused of being Pelosi light. While there are detractors from both sides the advantage is clearly John Yarmuth's primarily because Todd still doesn't get it. He still cannot and has not laid out a definitive plan on the talking points he tries to use. He has opted instead to use traditional Republican attacks which have been proven false. Less taxes for small business, smaller government are great talking points but we are well beyond these talking points and looking for specifics on how he will accomplish these things. Lally can't tell us because he has never owned a business nor has any business experience. He has never written a paycheck nor worried about benefits.

Yarmuth in the meantime has proven very knowledgeable and whether you agree with his stance on issues or not, in many cases I don't, at least he is forthcoming and open about them and that endears him to the base.

There are two others in the race. Ed Martin has probably the best ideas and plans. I know because I have spoken with him about them several times, but Martin has never really tried to get them out effectively. Without an aggressive front he has no chance.

Independent Mike Hansen? He is way out of step with mainstream and one has to wonder why he is even running.

Yarmuth wins easily by 15 or better.

STATE REP DISTRICT 28: No contest here at all. Brewer lost to Miller by over 20 points last election and I can't see him getting any closer regardless of anti incumbent backlash. Brewer is completely out of touch with reality and knows absolutely nothing about government nor cares about anything other than towing the Frank Simon ultra right wing christian conservative movement. His biggest claim to fame is lobbying on behalf of Frank Simon in Frankfort against gay marriage and for the pro lifers. The God, Gays, Guns, and abortion crowd will be proud but those issues have nothing to do with the day to day job.

Miller is a very likeable guy, personally I even like him, but Miller does have some problems. Most notably his continued lack of production, failing education, and generally towing the party line. However in this case it would be a plus compared to his opponent.

Miller by 25.

STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 35 features longtime incumbent Jim Wayne squaring off against newcomer Independent Michael Lewis. Lewis you may recall took his fight for independents to Frankfort with CNN in tow. Lewis was solely responsible for outing former Gov Juliann Carroll's idiotic remarks about independents on the National stage.

I kind of liked this matchup already but then ex Democratic Chair Jennifer Moore decided she was worried about competition from an unknown independent in her quest to keep the seat with Jim Wayne in it. She made this a race to watch.

Hopefully the voters can see the writing on the wall in regards to Jim Wayne but I doubt it. The testis whether the voters are sick of Jim Wayne and vote for an outsider. No Republican had the guts to step up and that is telling in itself.

Wayne wins by 10.

STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 37: Former Chair of the State Democratic Party Jennifer Moore has interjected herself as the "party attorney" and handpicked some races to fight against any ballot contender. Her idiocy may have backfired as the Dems want to keep District 37 seat formerly held by Ron Weston. Since Moore started down that road many started looking at other races as well and found that Democratic candidate Jeff Donahue will be proven to be ineligible for the ballot thereby giving the race to Republican Wade Hurt.

But this race will be interesting because of the timing of when Donahue is officially declared ineligible. Stay tuned on this one as it will continue on after November 2.

PVA: While the rest of the Country is discounting home values because of deflation in the market values the current PVA Tony Lindauer has chosen to raise them in most cases. Additionally, Lindauer has proven to be a disappointment wasting time and money trying to run our jobs out of town as evidenced by the fight against Ford on the property values. A known Democrat insider one has to wonder why Lindauer is forcing these policies at a time when many know that he is wrong.

Ford was proven right in their assessment when Lindauer tried to double it. Additionally, Lindauer has let thousands of dollars leave our tax base by illegally allowing improper homestead exemptions for those that don't qualify.

Republican Corey Koellner has an extensive background that would finally give us someone credible in the office that would not be a political hack. Unfortunately the Dems won't let every race lose and Lindauer has a heckuva insider advantage here.

Lindauer by 5.

COUNTY ATTORNEY: This race pits a newcomer in Michael R. Wilson against Abramson appointed Democrat Mike O'Connell. To say I think Mike O'Connell needs to go would be an understatement. He has abused his office in my opinion and has hurt choices in Judge elections by not allowing anyone that is a current Assistant DA to run in these elections without giving up their job first. This of course means many qualified candidates cannot run. What would happen if they lose? They would be unemployed and most cannot afford that risk. This backwards thinking is why we have those on the bench with no real competition (think Katie King and her opponent in James Green). Additionally, O'Connell has been fighting in court against the charitable gamers in regards to the cost of the smoking ban.

Guess who opposed O'Connell at the Supreme Court?

Michael R. Wilson. And O'Connell lost.

In a perfect world Wilson has the advantage because he has already proven himself smarter than O'Connell by beating him at the Supreme Court, but this isn't a perfect world, and the Democratic base don't bother with that reality.

Wilson would bring integrity back to the office but the Democrats just can't lose every seat.

O'Connell by 4.

COUNTY CLERK: The laughingstock of elections is at it again. Jack Wood is a joke, has always been a joke, and makes deals with anyone he thinks will benefit him. He even tried to use his daughter in the last election for Metro Council District 14 because he got beat in the primary. The joke is that he thinks after all his troubles in his hometown (nope it isn't Louisville), the idiotic shenanigans he has pulled in PRP, and his general egotistical nature will ever allow him to be elected again.

Wood makes Gilles Melloche look good and that is saying something.

In the meantime Bobbie Holsclaw has done a fair job and deserves reelection.

Holsclaw by 30.

SHERIFF: This would ordinarily be a race except for the players involved. Mike Roberts is a little known name outside his personal household and has no relevant experience to bring to the table. He has virtually no chance accordingly. Independent Don Fitzgerald has plenty to offer. Founder of the Pro Se Louisville group, and a tireless victims advocate, there is little doubt he would do a good job if elected. Fitzgerald brings knowledge of the law and integrity to the table.

The problem is he is an independent. The job may be mainly administrative but people still believe the Sheriff should have a law enforcement background. Besides Sheriff Aubrey has the backing of most of the local law enforcement agencies and that will carry the vote easily.

Sheriff Aubrey has plenty of support and wins this one by 10.


More to come folks. Stay tuned.........

4 comments:

  1. You've lost your mind.

    You have Miller beating Brewer by 25, yet you have Heiner winning against Fischer? How in the world can Miller beat Brewer by such a large margin in an area that Heiner MUST win to defeat Fischer? You're suggesting that people will go into the polls, vote straight Democrat, except Heiner?

    I believe that these "predictions" are based upon your own personal feelings or opinions on these individuals.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Ah the good ole Brewer boys chiming in. The facts are that even Diownard received Suoth end votes in 2006 and in Brewer's last race against Miller he lost by 20. It isn't a stretch to see that loss maintain or even widen in this election.

    Of course these predictions are my own personal opinions how could they not be?

    ReplyDelete
  3. I think you had better get ready for new sheriff...FitzGerald for Sheriff

    ReplyDelete
  4. As long as there is the straight party voting mechanism, we won't see any Independent win any election. Plus Aubrey is the incumbent, and he hasn't gotten into any major scandals.

    I think Brewer has run a better campaign than he did last time (which is not saying much), and with this being a Republican year as opposed to a Democratic year like 2008, I think that Brewer will get more votes than you give him credit for (perhaps 56-44). He did win a contested primary.

    ReplyDelete

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