Sunday, October 24, 2010

ELECTION PREDICTIONS: PART 2

This second part will deal with the Louisville Mayoral race, Metro Council races, and of course a couple of Judgeships. Have fun.

LOUISVILLE METRO MAYOR: This will undoubtedly be a close race but offers the first real chance for a Republican Mayor in decades. Democratic candidate Greg Fischer wouldn't know the truth if it bit him in anything. He has continually lied about his background and even recently got caught possibly breaking the law with his insider deal with Independent (and I use that term loosely) Jackie Green's withdrawal and subsequent endorsement. Fischer has not led the way on any issue instead letting Hal Heiner present the issues then Greg Fischer tries to claim them as his own.

Republican Hal Heiner on the other hand has campaigned above board, led the way on the issues, and clearly will be a great leader. The problem? Though Hal is picking up some Democratic voters, Democrats have gotten so used to being screwed by the Jerry Abramson Democratic machine it is a way of life they may not want to give up.

Independent Jerry Mills is a nut who runs every time, and Nimbus Couzins is no better.

The Democratic "hate any Republican" mentality will get Fischer the base but I am banking on the cross over Democratic voters who actually pay attention to the issues and the candidates.

Heiner by 3.

METRO COUNCIL RACES


DISTRICT 5 Is a race between incumbent Cheri Bryant Hamilton and newcomer Danny Moore. Ms. Hamilton has proven to be partisan in many ways but offers more in substance then her opponent. In this case experience matters and Ms. Hamilton is well liked by her constituents overall.


Hamilton by 10.

DISTRICT 6 is one race I have written about extensively. With the passing of the late George Unseld this seat is open for election midterm with Democrat David James, Independent and incumbent Deonte Hollowell, republican first time challenger Candace Jaworski, and write in candidate Democrat Ken Herndon. I have written so much on this race you can peruse the site for the articles.

Bottom line is that Deonte Hollowell was appointed as a compromise candidate and it is hard for any independent to win any seat, Ken Herndon has been playing the crying victim card for far too long and at one time he would have been a contender but he has apparently blown any chance within the party to be effective. This leaves Republican challenger Candace Jaworski and Democrat David James as the rest.

In my opinion, the games Herndon has been playing behind the scenes has hurt him and gives James the clear lead as a Democrat. Folks are sick of the negative and this race has had its share but history and results matter. James is a retired LMPD officer with 13 years narcotics experience in a District with high crime and that is a good fit for District 6.


A Republican has no shot in this District in any way so the front runner is James.

James by 7.

DISTRICT 9 features what many think will be a close race myself included. Incumbent Tina Ward Pugh has shown herself to be a major partisan player and people are sick of the District needs not extending past Frankfort Ave. Republican Patrick Duerr brings name recognition within the predominantly catholic community in this District and will be a real challenge.

I think this race is too close to call but will go out on a limb and say Duerr by 2.

DISTRICT 13 under Democrat Vicki Welch has been poorly represented for some time. Welch has some serious issues in regards to even knowing what her job entails and the half truths and untruths she continually lays out. She has been proven to abuse her authority in public events in this election and still cannot identify her votes about MSD. By now that one issue alone should be known as well as the back of her hand thanks to public scrutiny but Welch does what the party tells her to and that is the problem.

In the meantime Welch has a familiar opponent in Republican Renay Davis. Davis is known to be fearless and many believe that is what the District needs. I concur.

Though Welch will have the base as usual I believe after such a close contest the last election Davis may finally be in a position to win.

Davis by 3 in another close race.

DISTRICT 15 is no contest. Marianne Butler defeats Jody Harral handily.

Butler by 12.

DISTRICT 17 should be an interesting race. William Chen is facing off against incumbent Glenn Stuckel. Unfortunately for Mr. Chen, Stuckel has not ruffled many feathers and should win easily.


Stuckel by 10.

DISTRICT 19 is a no brainer. Republican Jerry Miller has the credentials and the life experience to represent the District fairly. Newcomer Democrat Justin Chelft describes himself as a successful entrepreneur but at his age there needs to be more. We need proof of successes. With no public record to fall back on and no proof offered we cannot take his word for it.


If Chelft stays involved and may have a political future but this year in this race isn't his time. Especially in a predominantly Republican District.

Miller by 15.

DISTRICT 23 James Peden and John Summers. You would be hard pressed to find any negatives about incumbent James Peden and for good reason.


Peden by 15.

DISTRICT 25 Doug Hawkins and David Yates will present a contrasting picture. Yates has union backing (big surprise) predominantly because the majority of his legal experience is as a former UAW attorney where the focus was on bankruptcy and making out wills. Not much there. His biggest claim to fame legally was earlier this year when he pled his client former EMT Tammy Brewer, who killed her patient in a crash because she was under the influence of methadone, to a sentence of 10 years.


On the other side Hawkins has been portrayed by mainstream as some sort of nut who jumps the gun at every turn. The problem is Hawkins has always had the support of his constituents. The mainstream may not like the high profile way in which Hawkins gets things done but the people of his District most certainly do.

Hawkins will win by 7.

Ok I have to do one Judicial race now with the rest to come.

DISTRICT COURT JUDGE DIVISION 16 Katie King versus James Green. What can be said? Everyone is expecting an all out attack piece from me on Katie. Sorry to disappoint. Katie has been a train wreck and you can read throughout this website for all things Katie you want to find BUT that does not allow me to attack for attack's sake.

My problem with Judge King has always been how she got the job. The fact that that investigation is still ongoing after al lthis time should be a concern to many. With that being said however who is her opponent?

James Green is a former Judge who fell on hard times since 2002. An admitted recovering alcoholic for over 2 years, by the way I find it very commendable he takes responsibility for his actions, and personal problems due to a nasty divorce does not a good candidate make.

County Attorney Mike O'Connell should be blamed for the lack of quality candidates to run in these races thanks to his asinine rule requiring them to quit their job to run.

In the meantime for the most part all reports about Katie on the bench have been positive with many stating she is doing a good job.

That simply cannot be overcome by a weak candidate in James Green.

King wins reelection by 8.

Part 3 will involve other races including the rest of the judicial and more State races. Stay tuned!

17 comments:

  1. Excellent analysis. Hate to admit it, but I agree with each of your predictions. --Thomas McAdam

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  2. Ed

    Great analysis here, I have not seen this on any other site. Your predictions look good and I sure hope you are right on the Mayoral Race. I don't think Duerr can win in District 9, but it appears as though he has run a good campaign. Keep up the good work

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  3. Thanks Thomas but as in all things we shall see November 3 if I am close or not :-)

    i appreciate the kind words anonymous.

    Thanks for writing folks.

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  4. Don't understand how you can condemn Judge Green. I know of presidents who have done worse and have still won. You say you are not routing for Katie but sure sounds that way to some.

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  5. How can you say that falling on hard times does not a good candidate make? In my opinion, the better the candidate. He is more like us, the normal folk, than anyone. He knows what it is like to go thru trials and tribulations and has persevered thru them all. Let's give credit where credit is due. We are not perfect. God does not create perfect people. We all have to suffer everyday to become better people. Wake up and realize that life is all about problems and overcoming them. Unless YOU are one of the few who are perfect, or at least believe you are. I will pray for you, it sounds like you need all the prayers you can get.

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  6. Tina Ward-Pugh will win by a large landslide in District 9. She's simply unbeatable. She's a superstar.

    Vicki Welch will win by a healthy margin (if not more) in District 13 for several reasons: 1) She's the incumbent; 2) She has done an excellent job with constituent service (I know Republicans who love her for that reason alone); 3) All kinds of action is happening in her district, especially in Fairdale; 4) No scandals to speak of (despite what anyone's read here -- there's virtually nothing on her); 5) Her opponent has already been rejected twice before (perhaps the GOP might want to try someone new next time?); 6) She's been consistently right about the Bridges Project and has stood up for reason and community input. 7) She's the city's leader on the council for going after meth labs.

    I can't predict the race in District 25, but I do hope the good people of my district will give David Yates a chance. Doug Hawkins has simply not been there for our interests, and it's time to give this slacker the boot. Some have called Hawkins a necessary thorn in the side of the establishment, but as a resident in 25, I much prefer a rose that delivers for the district and works with people (imagine that concept!).

    As for the mayoral race, I think it's too close to call for me at this time. Fischer has the edge right now, but Heiner may have more cards up his sleeve for the finish. Beyond that, more and more voters are indeed discovering how dishonest Fischer is on many levels.

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  7. I forgot to say something about District 6.

    Given the unprecedented nature of the race, it's hard to guess that one. Really hard.

    But on a hunch, I think Herndon has the edge.

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  8. Anonymous I never condemned James Green. Look again in fact I even gave him praise for taking responsibility. BUT the facts are that he has done nothing significant since leaving the bench years ago and has had a whole host of problems.

    I wish him the bets but he is a weak candidate. I stand by by my assessment. In the meantime anyone who tihnks I am rooting for Katie must have holes in their head.

    My predictions are based on what I believe will happen and not based on anything else. Personal attacks or behavior have no place in this particular atrticle including by me.

    Thanks for writing.

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  9. Steve I will disagree and argue about Welh all day but there are problems with her. She doesn't know what her job is or what she votes for evidenced of late by the whole MSD denial of allowing them to raise rates.

    That is just one. The whole pseudo ephenedrine requiring a precription from a Doctor wa another bone headed move. Considering yo claim she is the authority on meth labs for the City that is a stretch as well.

    Welch has no clue about crime in her district. I have spoken with many throughout Candlelight and Yorktown that say they want her gone and crime is a big reason why.

    I agree with you on the Mayoral race it will be a close one. I will disagree with you on Herndon.

    Thanks for writing.

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  10. Steve....Obviously you do not live in the 6th District and have not talked to the majority of the people that do. EVERYONE is tired of Kens negativity and lies...this will show next Tuesday.
    I am waiting for something to be filed against Ken and the California Jets and their impressive cocaine user Latanya Hawkins...Tammy Hawkins..whatever name she is using.

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  11. Anonymous, most of the negativity I've heard about comes from the "official" Democratic candidate's camp in District 6.

    Again, from what I know, which is more than you realize, what Herndon's competition is _really_ tired of is that he's running a hard-fought campaign and they can't keep up.

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  12. My concern about James is how he expects to maintain his responsibilities as a police lieutenant AND be there for his constituents, should he win. Theoretically you can do both jobs, as council is a part-time job, but that generally suggests you are working a flexible job, probably self-employed or at least self-managed. I know Owens work for U of L, but his position is a little different.

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  13. Steve the only negatives I am getting are from Herndon and his limited supporters. They are actually even going out and spreading lies about me these days. Yep Ken himself is doing it. Either way we will know on Tuesday.

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  14. Anonymous James will be no different than any other elected councilman in that regard if he wins. Most have a day job so it is a non issue. Even folks like Rick Blackwell are teachers though his attendance record in school is suspect I am told.

    Either way for me it is a non issue because many co exist quite well with their private jobs and elected duties.

    Thanks for writing.

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  15. How King got her seat (Daddy buying it, and her attacking a blind man for being blind) are the least of her issues. How about the fact that she has never tried a case? How about how she engages in group sex with married men, uses drugs, has other criminal issues, etc?

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  16. Anonymous I have the same reports from some insiders BUT they are not willing to go on the record. With that in mind the things you speak of at this point are hearsay and rumor.

    Without verification that is all it amounts to. Do you have proof? If so contact me.

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  17. My thoughts regarding the District 16 are: We live in a fabulous country where we can vote & make a difference. I will be voting for James Green. I hope that anyone else with average intelligence will do the same. Together, we can get Katie King off the bench. Sitting around talking about it isn't gonna change anything. Former Judge Green has had many years of experience, and is very respected at the Courthouse. The odds are definitely against him, but our votes still count.

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Thank you for reading LNP. Open and honest discussions of local politics and relevant issues is important to voter understanding. Please listen to the "Ed Springston Show". We broadcast Monday through Thursday evenings at 7 PM on local media outlets. Please check for the links.
Yours truly,
Ed Springston